The Iraqi Barometer – Iraq's premier analysis and monitoring platform

The reluctance of the Shiite public to update their electoral registers compared to the turnout of other groups

This report aims to provide an in-depth comparative analysis of voter registration update processes and voter card distribution in Iraq, based on data available from the Independent High Electoral Commission, and combined with the results of the 2023 provincial council elections and the 2024 population census data. The analysis reveals a clear disparity in participation levels in updating the registers and receiving voter cards among the main demographic components in Iraq, namely the Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds.

The results show that voter registration updates and voter card distribution rates in predominantly Sunni and Kurdish areas are higher than those in predominantly Shia areas, a fact clearly reflected in voter turnout in the recent provincial council elections. While provinces such as Kirkuk, Anbar, Nineveh, and the Kurdistan Region recorded relatively high turnout, predominantly Shia southern and central provinces, including the mixed city of Baghdad (with a population of over 9 million, more than 68% of whom are Shia), witnessed remarkably low turnout.

This disparity is not limited to the logistical aspects of the voter registration update process; it reflects deeper factors related to political dynamics, levels of party mobilization, and perhaps the degree of trust in the electoral process among different segments of the population. The overall low voter registration update rate in Iraq, which does not exceed 4.6% of eligible voters, means that any variation in update rates among key groups will have a significant impact on their political influence.

The case of the Baghdad Provincial Council is a prime example of how political factors, such as the Sadrists' boycott of the elections, significantly reduced Shia participation in a demographically mixed province. The Shia public's abstention from voting demonstrated a marked shift in the balance of power within the council, giving other groups hope of gaining influence in the near future.

The report concludes that the continuation of these discrepancies in voter registration and participation could lead to shifts in the balance of representation in the upcoming parliamentary elections, potentially resulting in a decline in the proportional representation of the Shia community and an increase for other communities. The report also offers important recommendations for achieving this balance.